The battery company was attacked by both sides, and the power lithium battery company was "swimming naked"?
Bir tomondan, lityum batareya giganti CATL 24 kun ichida IPO yig'ilishidan o'tib, IPO yig'ilishi uchun yangi rekord o'rnatdi; boshqa tomondan, Jianruiwo Neng yana bir bor aktsiyadorlarni qisqartirish e'lonini e'lon qildi va shu bilan birga joriy yilning birinchi choragida 300 million yuandan ortiq zararni bashorat qildi. Bilishingiz kerakki, Jianrui Vo Neng 2017 yilda mahalliy quvvat akkumulyatorining o'rnatilgan quvvati bo'yicha uchinchi o'rinni egalladi, faqat CATL va BYDdan keyin ikkinchi o'rinni egalladi va o'tgan yilning birinchi choragida 254 million foyda ko'rdi. Texnik marshrut sozlanganda va ichki yangi energiya siyosatini subsidiyalash siyosati asta-sekin bekor qilinganda, quvvat akkumulyatori kompaniyalarini o'zgartirish kuchaydi. O'tgan yili nafaqat CATL va BYD o'rindiqlarini almashishdi, balki ko'plab kichik va o'rta korxonalarning ko'rsatkichlari- ham pasaydi.
Batareya kompaniyalari har ikki tomon tomonidan hujumga uchraydi
Buffett once said that you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out. The new energy vehicle industry, which was once in full swing, ushered in a major reshuffle after the subsidy ebb.
On the evening of April 9, Jian Rui Wo Neng, who was in crisis, said that the company's loss has increased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in orders from its wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd. Jianrui Wo Neng and Waterma said that the occurrence of the breakage incident and the impact of the 2017 national subsidy retreat on the market were misjudged, and the scale expansion was not controlled in time, resulting in untimely payment. This opened the tip of the iceberg.
The predecessor of Jianrui Weneng was Jianrui Fire. In 2016, it acquired 100 percent equity of Waterma and entered the field of lithium iron phosphate new energy vehicle power battery and automobile starting power supply. However, the new energy vehicle industry is generally highly dependent on subsidies. The decline in subsidies has led to a decline in the profits of battery companies. In 2017, BYD's net profit also fell by 19.51 percent year-on-year, and it is expected to drop by 75.24 percent -91.75 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Quvvat akkumulyatori yangi energiya vositasining asosiy komponenti bo'lib, xarajat butun avtomobilning 30-50 foizini tashkil qiladi. Subsidiya pasayadi va quvvat akkumulyatori korxonasi ham tegishli narxni pasaytirish bosimiga ega bo'lishi kerak. Bir tomondan, xaridorlar batareyalar narxini pasaytirishga bosim o'tkazmoqda, boshqa tomondan, yuqori oqim etkazib beruvchilari narxlarni vahshiyona ko'tarmoqda. Batareya ishlab chiqaruvchi kompaniyalarning ahvolini tasavvur qilish mumkin. 2017-yilda uchlik lityum batareyalar sotuvining qariyb yarmini tashkil etgan CATLda ham 2015 yildan 2017 yilgacha asosiy mahsulot quvvat akkumulyatori tizimlarining yalpi foyda marjasi mos ravishda 41,40 foiz, 44,84 foiz va 35,25 foizni tashkil etdi, bu esa sezilarli darajada kamaydi. 2017 yil.
Today, these two factors still plague power battery manufacturers: First, the price of raw materials has skyrocketed. Among them, the most expensive cathode material, cobalt, currently reaches 600,000 yuan per ton, and is known as "cobalt grandma" in the industry. The second is the reduction of state subsidies. In 2018, the subsidy quota for new energy buses will be reduced by about 40 percent , which will be officially implemented on June 12 this year. In 2017, the installed capacity of batteries with an energy density of less than 105Wh/kg accounted for 50.7 percent . This part will not be subsidized this year, which will promote the accelerated reshuffle of the power battery industry. It is expected that new energy subsidies will be fully withdrawn in 2020, and competition with international giants without subsidies will be a major test for domestic power battery companies.
Quvvat batareyasining bosh plitasini almashtirish
Maʼlumotlarga koʻra, 2017-yilda global quvvat akkumulyatorlari sotuvi boʻyicha yetakchi beshlikka CATL, Panasonic, BYD, Waterma va LG Chem kirdi, ularning sotilishi mos ravishda 11,84 GVt/soat, 10 GVt/soat, 7,2 GVt/soat, 5,5 GVt/soat va 4,5 GVt/soatni tashkil etdi. Xorijda Panasonic Yaponiyada quvvat akkumulyatorlari bo‘yicha yetakchi, LG va Samsung esa Janubiy Koreyada ikkita quvvat akkumulyatoridir. Katta o'lchamlari bilan ular o'zlarining miqyoslaridan foydalanadilar va akkumulyator texnologiyasi va avtomatlashtirishda etakchi mavqega ega.
In 2017, CATL's power battery shipments increased by 73 percent , surpassing Panasonic in one fell swoop and taking the world's first position in the industry. Judging from the installed capacity of power batteries, which can better reflect market share, CATL was 10.4GWh in 2017, and one company monopolized nearly 30 percent of the market. The company was valued at 130 billion when it was issued, and it is the first stock of power batteries that is well-deserved in terms of listing speed and valuation.
2016 yilda BYD quvvat akkumulyatorlari bo'yicha Xitoyda birinchi va dunyoda ikkinchi o'rinni egalladi. Ningde davrining to'satdan paydo bo'lishi bilan uning ishlashi 2017 yilda pasayib ketdi.
Biroq, quvvat akkumulyatori ishlab chiqarish quvvatining tez o'sishi va yangi energiya vositalari uchun subsidiya siyosatining pasayishi tufayli CATLda quvvat akkumulyatori tizimining narxi 2015 yilda 2,28 yuan / Vt dan 1,41 yuan / Vt ga qadar sezilarli darajada kamaydi. 2017 yilda jami pasayish 38,26 foizga etdi. CATLda chegirib tashlanmaydigan{8}}sof foyda ham 2016-yildagi 2,96 milliard yuandan 2017-yilda 2,47 milliard yuanga tushdi.
Hozirgi vaqtda yangi energiya yo'lovchi avtomobil akkumulyatorlarining asosiy texnik yo'nalishi uchlik batareyalardir (uchlik batareyalar ham CATL ning asosiy texnik yo'nalishi), ya'ni nikel-kobalt lityum manganat yoki nikelli lityum batareyalar{{1} }katod materiallari sifatida kobalt lityum aluminat va katod materiali sifatida kobalt. Stabilizatorlar ajralmas hisoblanadi. Uchlik lityum yuqori energiya zichligiga ega va batareyaning uzoq umrini ta'minlaydi. 2017 yilga kelib, uchlik lityum batareyalar narxi minimal 1,4-1,5 yuan / Wh ga tushdi, bu asosan lityum temir fosfat bilan bir xil. Uchlik batareyalarning ko'tarilishi Ningde davrining BYD dan o'zib ketishining muhim sababidir.
It's getting harder for SMEs
When the leaders in the industry change their positions, other small and medium{{0}}sized companies in China's power battery industry also experience the industry's cold and warm - the largest of which, Waterma, had an installed capacity of only 2.3GWh in 2017. This company and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which ranked fourth last year and is also a listed company, only have a gap of 0.4GWh in the installed capacity of power lithium batteries, which is not even a fraction of the capacity of power batteries under construction between the two parties-Waterma 2020 The planned annual production capacity is 20GWh, while Guoxuan Hi-Tech has a higher target of 30GWh. Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which is mainly engaged in new materials for iron-lithium power batteries, achieved a net profit of 920 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 10.73 percent .
Chengfei Integration, which is mainly engaged in the lithium battery business, achieved an operating income of 2 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 9.04 percent ; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -77.3428 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 156.16 percent , while the company's net profit in 2016 was as high as 137 million yuan. This is Chengfei Integrated's first loss in ten years. Chengfei Integration mainly produces lithium iron phosphate batteries, and its main customers are new energy buses, which are more affected by policy decline than passenger cars.
Quvvat batareyasining jiddiy haddan tashqari quvvati
Ma'lumotlar shuni ko'rsatadiki, 2017 yilda mening mamlakatimda yangi energiyali avtomobil akkumulyatorlarining o'rnatilgan quvvati 36,27 Gw/soatni tashkil etdi, bu o'tgan yilga nisbatan 20 foizga o'sdi--, bu 50-yildan ancha uzoq edi. 2017 yil boshida sanoat tomonidan hisoblangan 60 GWh; va lityum batareyalarning texnik yo'nalishi katta o'zgarishlarga duch keldi. Quvvat batareyalarining bozor ulushi 44 foizdan oshadi, bu 2016 yilga nisbatan ikki baravar ko'paydi. Bu Jian Ruyvu ham kuta olmaydigan narsa.
Boshqa tomondan, o'tgan yili mening mamlakatimda yangi energiya vositalarini ishlab chiqarish va sotish hajmi 800,{1}} donaga yaqin bo'lib, 2016 yilga nisbatan 50 foizga o'sdi; yangi energiyali yoʻlovchi transport vositalarining ishlab chiqarilishi yiliga 478,{5}} donani tashkil etdi, bu yiliga-yilda-200,000 dan ortiq oʻsish. Shubhasiz, quvvat akkumulyatorining o'rnatilgan quvvatining o'sish sur'ati yangi energiya avtomobillarini ishlab chiqarish va sotishning o'sish sur'atlarini ushlab turolmaydi, chunki yangi energiya vositalarini ishlab chiqarish va sotish tuzilmasi o'zgardi va engil avtomobillar va maxsus transport vositalarining ulushi tez sur'atlar bilan o'sdi. . Yangi energiya yo'lovchi avtomobillari bozorining pasayish tendentsiyasi ostida, katta yutuqlarga erishishda davom etayotgan yangi energiya yo'lovchi avtomobillari quvvat akkumulyatori ishlashining o'sishining asosiga aylandi.
At the same time, the power battery production capacity has been seriously excessive. It is reported that in 2017, the production capacity of my country's entire power battery industry exceeded 200GWh, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 100GWh in 2020.
The prospectus of CATL also reflects this. In 2017, CATL's lithium-ion battery production capacity was 17.09GWh, output was 12.91GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.54 percent ; while in 2015 and 2016, it was 96.92 percent and 92.37 percent , respectively, and the company's capacity utilization rate was 96.92 percent . It has declined for two consecutive years, with a decline of 20 percent . This may be the company's response.
Xitoyda BYD CATL davridagi eng xavfli raqobatchi hisoblanadi. Bu sobiq akkumulyator egasi o'tgan yili yuk tashish bo'yicha CATL tomonidan ortda qoldi. Batareyaning etakchi mavqeini tiklash uchun BYD ikkita muhim o'zgartirish kiritdi: biri batareya texnologiyasi yo'nalishini sozlash. 2017 yildan beri BYD o'zining yengil avtomobillari biznesida uchlik lityum batareyalardan foydalanishni boshladi va 2018 yilda ishlab chiqarilgan sof elektr modellari va undan keyin ham uchlik lityum batareyalardan foydalanadi. Biroq, CATL va Guoxuan Hi-Tech kabi akkumulyator kompaniyalari ham uchlik batareyalar ishlab chiqarish quvvatini kengaytirishni boshladi. Ikkinchisi, quvvat akkumulyatori biznesini to'xtatish va uni boshqa yangi energiya ishlab chiqaruvchi kompaniyalarni etkazib berish uchun mustaqil ravishda boshqarishdir.
In the Ningde era, it has won nearly 30 percent of the domestic power battery market share - when it reaches twice BYD's, whether BYD can return to the first place will be one of the highlights of China's power batteries in the future.
