With the quantification of energy density guidelines, can the trend of lithium iron phosphate "counterattack" ternary lithium continue?
Yangi energiya vositalari uchun quvvatli litiy{0}}ionli akkumulyatorga kelsak, bozorda uchlik litiy-ion batareya va lityum temir fosfat batareyasining texnik yo'nalishi bo'yicha bahs-munozaralar bo'lib o'tdi. Birinchisi yuqori narxga ega, ammo batareyaning ishlash muddati uzoq, ikkinchisi esa batareyaning ishlash muddati biroz yomonroq, lekin arzon va yuqori xavfsizlikka ega.
Ilgari, yangi energiya siyosati subsidiyalari tufayli 2017 yildan 2019 yilgacha energiya zichligi yuqori bo'lgan uchlik lityum{2}}ionli batareyalar bozor yetakchisiga aylandi. Biroq, 2019 yilda subsidiya asta-sekin kamayib ketgandan so'ng, lityum temir fosfat batareyalari xarajat afzalliklari va texnologik yutuqlar bilan bozorning foydasiga sazovor bo'ldi. 2021 yilda lityum temir fosfatning o'rnatilgan quvvati uchlik lityumdan oshib ketishi kutilmoqda.
On November 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's opinion draft once again raised the requirements for the energy density of lithium-ion batteries. The market expects that the cost advantage will expand the share of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials in the mid-to-low end, and the mid-to-high-end passenger cars are dominated by ternary cathode materials, and the ternary cathode will develop towards the trend of high nickel. Among the ternary material manufacturers such as Rongbai Technology and Long-term Lithium, who can stand out under the trend of high nickelization?
01. Siyosat bozorda hukmronlik qilish uchun uchlik lityum materiallarni qo'llab-quvvatlaydi
The rapid development and popularization of new energy vehicles is inseparable from the breakthrough of power lithium-ion battery performance and the reduction of cost. As the "heart" of new energy vehicles, the cost of power lithium-ion batteries accounts for about 40 percent of the entire vehicle, and its performance directly determines the safety and cruising range of the entire vehicle.
Yangi energiyali avtomobil quvvatiga ega lityum{0}}ion batareyalarni ishlab chiqishda lityum{1}}ion batareyalar, yoqilg'ida ishlaydigan litiy{2}}va natriy-ion batareyalar kabi texnik yo'nalishlar mavjud. Hozirgi vaqtda lityum{4}}ionli batareyalar eng ko'p qo'llaniladi. Lityum{5}}ionli batareyalar asosan musbat elektrod materiallari, manfiy elektrod materiallari, ajratgichlar, elektrolitlar va batareya qobig'idan iborat. Ijobiy elektrod materiali asosan batareyaning energiya zichligi va xavfsizligini belgilaydi, bu esa o'z navbatida batareyaning umumiy ishlashiga ta'sir qiladi. Bundan tashqari, katod materiali litiy{7}}ionli batareyalar narxining taxminan 40 foizini tashkil qiladi va uning narxi ham batareyaning umumiy narxiga ta'sir qiladi, bu esa o'z navbatida butun avtomobil narxiga ta'sir qiladi.
According to the different cathode materials, lithium ion batteries can be divided into lithium manganate batteries, lithium cobalt oxide batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary lithium ion batteries and other types. Among them, ternary lithium-ion batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are the absolute main force. According to the data of my country's Automobile Power Li-ion Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in the first 10 months of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of my country's power lithium-ion batteries is 107.5GWh, of which the loading of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries accounts for the proportion of the total installed capacity. 99.8 percent .
Uchlik litiy{0}}ionli batareyalar va litiy-temir fosfatli akkumulyatorlarning oʻziga xos afzalliklari bor. Uchlik lityum{1}}ionli akkumulyatorlar turli nisbatdagi nikel, kobalt, marganets (alyuminiy) elementlardan iborat bo‘lib, past haroratga chidamlilik va yuqori energiya zichligi, lekin yuqori narx va yonuvchanlik xususiyatlariga ega. Bu portlash oson; lityum temir fosfat batareyalarining afzalliklari past narx, yuqori aylanish muddati, yaxshi termal barqarorlik va yuqori xavfsizlik ko'rsatkichlari, ammo kamchiliklar past haroratga chidamlilik, past energiya zichligi va yomon batareya muddati.
So'nggi bir necha yil ichida siyosat subsidiyalari, xarajatlar va boshqa omillar tufayli uchlik litiy{0}}ionli batareyalar va lityum temir fosfat batareyalarining bozor ulushi o'zgarib ketdi. Yangi energiya vositalarini ishlab chiqishning dastlabki bosqichida emissiya va yoqilg'i iqtisodini hisobga olgan holda siyosat tijorat transport vositalariga qaratildi. Lityum temir fosfatning xavfsizlik va aylanish muddati kabi afzalliklari uni katodlar uchun birinchi tanlovga aylantirdi va uning bozor ulushi ancha oldinda edi. 2016-yilda lityum temir fosfatli batareyalar mahalliy quvvatli lityum{3}}ion batareyalar bozorining 69 foizini tashkil qildi.
Biroq, 2017 yilda davlat yangi energiya vositalari uchun subsidiya siyosatini to'g'irlaganligi sababli, akkumulyator energiya zichligi birinchi marta subsidiya mos yozuvlar indeksiga kiritilgandan so'ng, lityum temir fosfat batareyalari va uchlik lityum ion batareyalarining bozor pozitsiyasi o'zgardi.
At that time, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries was mainly concentrated in 70-80Wh/Kg, which could not meet the "mass energy density of pure electric passenger vehicle power lithium-ion battery system not less than 90Wh/kg. 1.1 times the "subsidy" standard, which has led to a gradual shift in the market to ternary lithium-ion batteries with higher energy density. In 2018, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries was surpassed by ternary lithium ion batteries for the first time. According to data from the Power Li-ion Battery Alliance, in 2018, the cumulative output of domestic power lithium-ion batteries reached 70.6GWh, of which ternary batteries accounted for 55.5 percent , and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries dropped to 39.7 percent .
2020-yilning birinchi choragida uchlamchi lityum{1}}batareyalarning bozor ulushi 76 foizgacha oshdi. Dominant tendentsiya mavjud. Hatto ba'zi brokerlar uchlik materiallari katod bozorida hukmronlik qilishiga ishonishadi. Biroq, litiy{3}}ionli batareyalar raqobati yana o'zgarishini hech kim kutmagan edi.
02. Lityum temir fosfat batareyalari subsidiyalar pasayganidan keyin qayta tiklanadi
Umumiy uch katodli materiallar nikel kobalt marganetsdan iborat, kimyoviy formulasi LiNixCoyMn1-x-yO2 va modellar NCM333, NCM523, NCM622 va NCM811. Ularning orasida 333 va 811 kabi raqamlar NCM materialidagi Ni / Co / Mn ning molyar koeffitsient nisbatiga ishora qiladi. NCM333 ni NCM811 bilan solishtirganda, NCM811 yuqori nikel va past kobaltga ega uchlik katodli materialdir.
Kobalt nisbatan kam uchraydigan metall boʻlgani uchun va kobaltning bozor narxi yuqori boʻlgani uchun kobalt miqdori qancha koʻp boʻlsa, quvvatli litiy{0}}ionli batareyalar narxi oshadi. Nikel metalining tarkibini arzonroq narx bilan oshirish va kobalt metallining tarkibini yuqori narx bilan kamaytirish orqali u nafaqat energiya zichligini yaxshilash, balki uch katodli materialning narxini pasaytirishi mumkin, shuning uchun uchlik katod moddasi asta-sekin yuqori nikelgacha yoki hatto rivojlanadi. kobalt-bepul. , NCM622, NCM811 va NCA (nikel{4}}kobalt-alyuminiy) va boshqa yuqori{6}}nikelli materiallar asosiy oqimga aylandi.
The rapid development of ternary cathode materials after 2017 cannot be without the help of subsidies. Since 2019, with the gradual decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the cost has become something that various vehicle manufacturers have to consider. With the launch of CATL's CTP technology and BYD's blade battery technology, lithium iron phosphate batteries with lower cost and improved performance have been favored by OEMs.
Huaan Securities kompaniyasining 2021-yil boshidagi tadqiqot hisobotiga ko'ra, lityum temir fosfatdan foydalanish narxi taxminan 0,08 yuan/Whni tashkil etadi, bu uchlik bilan solishtirganda 0,15-0,21 yuan/Whni tejash imkonini beradi. katod materiallari, bu xarajatlarni 65 foizdan 72 foizga kamaytirishga to'g'ri keladi. Mavjud subsidiya siyosatiga ko'ra, masalan, 55 kVt / soat quvvatga ega va batareyaning ishlash muddati 405 kilometr bo'lgan uch batareyali batareya lityum temir fosfat batareyasi bilan almashtiriladi va xarajat 4600 yuanga 5600 yuanga kamayishi mumkin.
Natijada, xarajat tomonining afzalligi lityum temir fosfat materiallarining o'sish sur'atini yana uchlik materiallariga qaraganda ancha yuqori qiladi. Ommaviy maʼlumotlarga koʻra, 2020-yilda mahalliy quvvatli litiy{0}}ionli akkumulyator ishlab chiqarish 83,4 GVt/soatni tashkil etadi, bu esa yiliga-yiliga-2,3 foizga kamaygan. Shu bilan birga, litiy-temir fosfatli akkumulyatorlarning ishlab chiqarishi yiliga-24,7 foizga oshib, 34,6 GVt/soatga-kadi, uchlik batareyalar ishlab chiqarishi esa 12 foizga kamaydi- }}yilga 48,5 GVt/soatgacha.
2020 yilning ikkinchi yarmidan boshlab, yuqori oqimdagi quyma tovarlarning narxi keskin oshdi va OEMlarning xarajatlar tomonidagi bosim 2021 yilda sezilarli bo'ladi. Ko'pgina OEMlar uchlik batareyalardan lityum temir fosfat batareyalariga o'tishni tezlashtirdi.
2021 yil aprel oyida BYD barcha sof elektr yo'lovchi modellari lityum temir fosfat pichoqli batareyalar bilan jihozlanishini e'lon qildi. Iyul oyida Mask kelajakda Tesla 2/3 lityum temir fosfatli batareyalar va 1/3 uchlik batareyalardan foydalanishini aytdi. Oktyabr oyida Tesla butun dunyo bo'ylab Model 3 va Model Y akkumulyatorlarining standart ishlash muddati lityum temir fosfatli batareyalarga o'tishini e'lon qildi. Bundan tashqari, Volkswagen, Ford va Mercedes- litiy-temir fosfatli akkumulyatorlardan boshlangʻich{7}}darajadagi modellarda foydalanishini aniq taʼkidladi.
2021 yilning birinchi 10 oyida lityum temir fosfat yuklanishining o'sish sur'ati 316,4 foizni, uchlamchi materiallarni yuklashning o'sish sur'ati esa 100,1 foizni tashkil etdi. Birinchi 10 oyda uchlamchi litiyning yuklanish hajmi 54,1 GVt/soatni tashkil etgan bo‘lsa-da, bu fosfat{9}}tayoq lityum{10}}batareyalarining yuklash hajmidan 53,2 Vt/soatdan bir oz yuqori bo‘lsa-da, 2021-yil iyulidan boshlab yuklash litiy temir fosfat hajmi uch oydan ortiq davom etdi. Ushbu tendentsiyaga ko'ra, lityum temir fosfat materiallarining bozor ulushi 2021 yilda uch tomonlama materiallardan oshib ketishi kutilmoqda.
In just 4 or 5 years, the market competition pattern of cathode materials for power lithium-ion batteries has reversed twice. On November 18, the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Lithium-ion Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2021 Edition)" (draft for comments), which further improved the energy density requirements for lithium-ion batteries and the competition between ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate. will continue.
03. Yuqori nikelizatsiya tendentsiyasi ostida uchlik material ishlab chiqaruvchilarda kim etakchi bo'ladi?
After the release of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's consultation draft, the research report of CITIC Securities believes that "in the context of vehicle electrification and intelligence, the pursuit of high-energy-density battery materials for power lithium-ion batteries will not stop. Such advantages will make it continue to be an important choice as a cathode material for passenger vehicle power lithium-ion batteries."
Shu bilan birga, CITIC Securities tadqiqot hisobotida ta'kidlanishicha, kelajakdagi hujjatlarni joriy etish lityum temir fosfat sanoatining rivojlanishini amaliy bostirishga olib kelmasligi kutilmoqda va lityum temir fosfat yangi energiya vositalarining jadal rivojlanishidan hali ham foyda ko'radi. va energiya saqlash sanoati.
19-noyabr kuni BYD raisi va prezidenti Vang Chuanfu akkumulyatorga sarmoya kiritish muammosi texnik yo‘nalishda ekanligini aytdi. Uchlik hali ham temir fosfat, silindr hali ham kvadrat va noto'g'ri yo'nalishda borish 10 milliard yuanning yo'qolishiga olib kelishi mumkin va u uch yilni behuda sarflaydi. vaqt. Nafaqat akkumulyator ishlab chiqaruvchilari marshrutni tanlashda qiyinchiliklar va bosimlarga duch kelishlari kerak, balki yuqori oqimdagi katod materiallari ishlab chiqaruvchilari ham uchlik lityum yoki lityum temir fosfatni tanlash muammosiga duch kelishlari kerak.
Lityum{0}}ionli akkumulyatorli katod materiallari nuqtai nazaridan, uchlamchi materiallarning ulushi 2016 yildagi 33,8 foizdan 2018 yildagi 47,1 foizgacha oshdi va bu ulush 2019 yildan beri yildan-yilga kamaydi, 2019 yildagi 45,9 foizdan 2021 yilgacha. 39,2 foiz. Litiy temir fosfatning ulushi 2016 yildagi 35,8 foizdan 2018 yilda 21,9 foizga kamaydi. 2019 yildan boshlab bu ulush yildan-yilga oshib, 2019 yildagi 22,6 foizdan 2021 yilning birinchi yarmida 35,6 foizga yetdi.
Salbiy elektrod, elektrolitlar, separator va boshqa sohalar bilan solishtirganda, ijobiy elektrod sanoatining bozor strukturasi ko'proq bo'linib ketgan va CR5 bozor ulushi 2019 yildagi 38 foizdan 2020 yilda 37 foizgacha bir oz kamaydi.
At present, important companies producing ternary materials include Rongbai Technology, Dangsheng Technology, Long-term Lithium, Zhenhua New Materials, Xiamen Tungsten Industry, etc. Among them, Dangsheng Technology and Long-term Lithium are mainly based on conventional ternary materials NCM523 and NCM622, and the proportion of high-nickel ternary materials is relatively low. In the first three quarters of 2021, Dangsheng Technology's revenue was 5.171 billion, a year-on-year increase of 155 percent ; Long-term Lithium's revenue was 4.536 billion, a year-on-year increase of 322.95 percent .
Bozor ulushi nuqtai nazaridan, uchlik materiallar hali ham NCM523 tomonidan ustunlik qiladi. 2020 yilda NCM523 uchlik materiallari bozor ulushining 53 foizini, NCM811 esa 22 foizni tashkil etdi. Biroq, elektr transport vositalarining xarajatlarini kamaytirish va batareyaning ishlash muddatini yaxshilash nuqtai nazaridan, yuqori nikelgacha bo'lgan quvvatli lityum{6}}ionli batareyalar uchun uch katodli materiallarni ishlab chiqish umumiy tendentsiya hisoblanadi. 2020-yilda anʼanaviy uchlik NCM523 ulushi yiliga-9 foiz punktga-kamaydi va yuqori{12}}nikel uchlik NCM811 ulushi yiliga 9 foiz punktga oshdi{{15} }}yilda-. Biroq, yuqori{17}}nikelli uchlik materiallari hali ham yuqori narx va yomon xavfsizlik muammosini yengib o'tishi kerak.
At present, the domestic leader in high-nickel ternary materials is Rongbai Technology, and its NCM811 cathode shipments account for more than half of the domestic market. In the first half of 2021, Rongbai Technology's revenue was 6.251 billion, a year-on-year increase of 166.50 percent .
Biroq, uchlik lityum yoki lityum temir fosfatni tanlash oxir-oqibat terminal bozorining ehtiyojlariga bog'liq. Yangi energiya subsidiyalari kamayganidan so'ng, ba'zi avtomobil iste'molchilari avtomobil sotib olish narxiga ko'proq sezgir bo'lib, arzonroq narxlarda lityum temir fosfat batareyalari bilan jihozlangan modellarga murojaat qilishadi, bu shubhasiz avtomobil ishlab chiqaruvchilarni tanlashga ta'sir qiladi, keyin esa akkumulyator ishlab chiqaruvchilarga ta'sir qiladi va musbat elektrodlar. material ishlab chiqaruvchisi.
Sanoat va axborot texnologiyalari vazirligi lityum{0}}ionli batareyalar uchun energiya zichligi talablarini yanada oshirgandan so‘ng, uch tomonlama materiallar ishlab chiqaruvchilari orasida yuqori nikelli materiallarning narxi va xavfsizligini yengib o‘tishda yetakchilik qiladigan kompaniyalar ustunlikka ega bo‘lishlari mumkin. kelajakdagi raqobat.
