Xom ashyo narxlari keskin oshdi, yuqori va quyi oqimdagi lityum konlarini talon-taroj qildi
There is no doubt that the hottest track in the capital market this year is new energy. As the "heart" of new energy vehicles, power lithium-ion batteries have attracted more attention.
On November 22, CATL, the world's largest lithium-ion battery supplier, closed at 681.00 yuan per share, a record high, with a market value of 1.59 trillion yuan, second only to Kweichow Moutai in A-shares. Previously, the 58.2 billion "sky-high" fixed increase method of the CATL set a record for A-share private companies, which set off a heated market discussion.
The expansion of lithium-ion battery "one brother" is frequent, and at the same time, the price of raw materials has skyrocketed, which has seen the turbulent lithium battery industry.
Yu Qingjiao, secretary-general of the Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance and chairman of the Battery Hundred People's Association, told Fengkou Finance and Economics: "At present, the top companies have entered a new round of investment and expansion peaks, and second- and third-tier brands are also catching up with the first-tier companies. Power lithium-ion The global pattern of batteries may usher in a major change."
45 milliard yuanga katta o'sish, trillion gigantlar hali ham pul yetishmayaptimi?
From January to August this year, the global battery usage of CATL was 49.1GWh, with a market share of over 30 percent , ranking first in the world. Its third quarterly report shows that in the first three quarters of 2021, the company's revenue reached 73.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132.73 percent ; the net profit attributable to the parent was 7.751 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.9 percent . In addition, in the first three quarters, its net inflow of operating cash flow was 28.686 billion yuan, and the book money fund had 80.735 billion yuan, far exceeding the total revenue.
Yuqoridagi ma'lumotlardan ko'rinib turibdiki, Ningde davri boy kapital zahiralariga va kuchli qon hosil qilish qobiliyatiga ega.
However, the "not bad money" CATL announced in August that it would set an increase of 58.2 billion yuan, equivalent to its total net profit in the past 10 years, setting a record for fundraising by A-share private companies, causing many doubts. On the evening of November 15, CATL announced that it would lower the total amount of funds raised to 45 billion yuan.
Fengkou Finance and Economics found that the adjusted fixed increase method reduced 2 projects, namely the Ningde Times Huxi Li-ion Battery Expansion Project (Phase II) and the supplementary working capital of 9.3 billion yuan. Ningde Times explained that in order to improve the efficiency of capital use, the raised funds were invested in production construction projects and RD projects. The scale of the investment project, the company's financial situation and other factors were comprehensively considered, and the fixed increase fundraising method was adjusted.
Darhaqiqat, joriy yil boshidan beri jahon litiy{0}}ion batareyalari ishlab chiqaruvchilari oʻrtasida raqobat kuchli. Janubiy Koreya hukumati avvalroq 2030 yilga borib o'zining elektr avtomobil akkumulyatorlari sanoatini rivojlantirish uchun 35 milliard AQSh dollari (223,332 milliard yuan) sarmoya kiritishini e'lon qilgan edi. AQSh akkumulyator energiyasini saqlash sanoati ishlab chiqaruvchilari 11,4 milliard AQSh dollari (72,742 milliard yuan) moliyalashtiradi.
"The speed of self-produced batteries by multinational auto giants is accelerating, and second- and third-tier brands are also catching up with first-tier companies. The global pattern of power lithium-ion batteries may usher in big changes in the future. At the same time, the power lithium-ion battery industry has entered a new round of investment and expansion. At the peak, the fields of equipment and materials benefited first, and the whole industry chain set off a wave of production expansion, but after the last round of deep reshuffle, investment and production expansion were mainly concentrated in leading companies." Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance Secretary General, Battery Hundred People Chairman Yu Qingjiao said.
Yuqori texnologiyali sanoat tadqiqot institutining Litiy Batareyalar Tadqiqot Instituti (&II) 2025-yilda global quvvat va energiya saqlash akkumulyatorlarini yetkazib berish hajmi 1516 GVt/soatga yetishini bashorat qilmoqda. O‘sha paytda, agar CATL energiyaning 30 foizini o‘zida saqlab qolmoqchi bo‘lsa. bozor ulushi va boshqa tebranish omillarini hisobga olgan holda 455 GWh batareya sotishga erishish, CATL kamida 2025 yilgacha 520 GWh ishlab chiqarishga erishishi kerak. CATL e'loniga ko'ra, hozirda u maqsadli ishlab chiqarishdan 280 GVt / soat bo'shliqqa ega.
Hozirgi kunga kelib, CATL 4 ta yangi loyihaga sarmoya kiritish uchun 45 milliard yuan yig'di. Qurilish muddati 2-4 yilni tashkil etadi va ishlab chiqarish quvvati 135 GVt ga oshishi mumkin. Shuni ta'kidlash kerakki, rejalashtirilgan o'sish muvaffaqiyatli bo'lsa ham, CATL bo'shliqni qoplash uchun 2025 yilgacha yana 145 Gwh ishlab chiqarishni joylashtirishi kerak bo'ladi.
Xom ashyo narxlari keskin oshdi, yuqori va quyi oqimdagi lityum konlarini talon-taroj qildi
Ishlab chiqaruvchilarning jadal kengayishi ortida bozor talabining kutilmagan kengayishi turibdi.
Yoʻlovchilar federatsiyasining statistik maʼlumotlariga koʻra, joriy yilning yanvar-oktyabr oylarida mamlakatimizda yangi energiyali yoʻlovchi avtomobillari sotuvi jami 2 356 200 donani tashkil etib, yiliga -202,52 foizga oshib, 202,52 foizdan oshdi. bozor taxminlari. Ular orasida sof elektromobillar sotuvi 1 951 700 donani tashkil etib, bir yil davomida-209,5 foizga o'sdi.
Talabning portlashi, o'z navbatida, xom ashyo, xususan, lityum resurslari bilan ta'minlanishning keskin pasayishiga olib keldi. Shu bilan birga, yangi toj epidemiyasi, bozor shov-shuvi va valyutaning-ortiqcha emissiyasi kabi beqaror omillar qo'shildi va xom ashyo narxi doimiy ravishda oshib bormoqda. 22-noyabr holatiga ko'ra, akkumulyator{2}}sinf lityum karbonat bir tonna uchun 199,400 yuanni tashkil etdi, bu yil boshidan 230 foizdan ko'proq o'sdi. Yuqori oqimdagi spodumen kontsentratining o'rtacha narxi oyiga 1800 AQSH dollarini tashkil etdi, bu yil boshidagi spodumenning CIF narxi bilan solishtirganda-oy-oyiga 30 AQSh dollariga oshdi. tonnani tashkil etdi, bu taxminan 350 foizga o'sdi.
"The increase in the price of lithium battery materials is not new. Since October last year, the prices of cathode materials and electrolytes for the production of lithium ion batteries have begun to increase." Yu Qingjiao told Fengkou Finance and Economics, BYD, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo Six well-known car companies have announced that they will gradually stop the production of fossil fuel vehicles worldwide by 2040, and all enter the new energy market. The supply of raw materials will continue to be in short supply, and it is expected that there will be no price ceiling in five years.
It is worth mentioning that there are two ways to obtain important resources for lithium-ion batteries, namely, ore extraction and salt lake extraction. my country's lithium resources account for 5.9 percent of the world's, and its output accounts for 17 percent of the world's. Lithium resources are limited, so about 70 percent of my country's lithium raw materials came from overseas last year.
As for battery manufacturers, mastering upstream resources will have the confidence to seize the market. Today, the battlefield of lithium mines is even more international. In July of this year, Ganfeng Lithium, the "boss" of domestic lithium resources, announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary would launch an acquisition of Canadian Millennium Lithium. It is worth noting that Millennium Lithium owns two Argentine lithium salt lake projects. In September, the Ningde era suddenly rushed out, increasing the price to cut off Hu, and snatch the lithium mine. After it thought it won the bid, in early November, it was "snatched" by the American Lithium Industry, which was held by Ganfeng Lithium Industry, with the same method.
Coincidentally, the reversal scene also occurred in another domestic lithium industry giant, Tianqi Lithium Industry. In 2018, Tianqi Lithium loaned 3.5 billion to buy a 23.77 percent stake in SQM, the world's second-largest lithium miner. In 2020, its rate was as high as 82.32 percent . However, in the first three quarters of this year, Tianqi Lithium's operating income was 3.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.58 percent ; its net profit was 530 million yuan, compared with a net loss of 1.103 billion yuan in the same period last year, which has turned losses into profits.
"Carbon neutrality plus new energy" will become the mainstream track
In fact, the limited production of lithium-ion batteries is inevitably tied to the country's dual-carbon goal.
In the long run, the strategy of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking will become the underlying logic of my country's economic development, energy transformation, resource protection, etc., and in a short period of time, its related new energy vehicle supply chain will cause a lot of impact.
"First of all, my country's environmental protection supervision is becoming more and more strict. Whether it is the source of raw materials or the power and production restrictions of the factory, the company's production and manufacturing costs will increase accordingly; secondly, the current recovery system of power lithium-ion batteries is not perfect, from the standardization and economy. From the point of view, there are still many problems to face, and it is impossible to maximize the utilization of resources." Yu Qingjiao said.
Under normal circumstances, the service life of power lithium-ion batteries is generally 5-8 years, while the real effective life is only 4-6 years. According to industry analysts, it is expected that starting from 2021, my country will usher in the peak period for the first batch of power lithium-ion batteries to be retired. In August this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Administrative Measures for the Echelon Utilization of Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles", pointing out that the company assumes the main responsibility for power battery recycling and ensures the effective use and environmental protection of power batteries.
Fengkou Finance ma'lumotlariga ko'ra, hozirgacha BYD, SAIC, BAIC, Tesla va boshqa avtomobil kompaniyalari akkumulyatorlarni qayta ishlash tizimlarini ishga tushirgan va tegishli texnik xizmat ko'rsatuvchi kompaniyalar bilan quvvatli litiy{0}}ion batareyalarni qayta ishlash bo'yicha hamkorlik shartnomalarini imzolagan. Litiy ion batareyalarini qayta ishlashning standart rejimi Xitoyda hali shakllanmagan bo'lsa-da, ko'plab yangi energiya ishlab chiqaruvchi kompaniyalar urinishlar qilishdi.
Kaiyuan Securities believes that due to the limitations of "carbon neutrality" and resource security issues, and at the same time benefiting from the strong increase in demand for new energy, the upstream industry chain will usher in a historic change. Especially lithium iron phosphate, as the most mainstream product of lithium battery cathode, the industry is expected to continue to boom. At the same time, many upstream companies are actively involved in the new energy track to boost the rapid development of my country's new energy industry. In the future, "carbon neutrality plus new energy" will still be the strongest main track. (Wu Si, a reporter from Fengkou Finance and Economics)
